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A STATISTICAL LOOK AT J-Bay 2010 Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 19 July, 2010 : - - Event four J-BAY 2010, completed..... J-Bay served up 4 great days in a row to see the crowning of a First Time Champion. The two surfers who were battling out the J-Bay final, had never won an event before… A local South African Wiz Kid and an Aussie Rookie. I love it as a stats guy when this happens, it doesn’t happen very often. I mean putting a new winner into my records file. To me it is as much a highlight of my year as it is for the surfers who win it. It’s funny what gives you a thrill in life… Yesterday it happened again and two surfers made the final without a previous win on the board. I was so stoked for the two guys, the South African Wiz Kid Jordy Smith defeated the young Australian Rookie Adam Melling in the final. And now Jordy Smith is added to the list of Dream Tour Event winners, there are 17 on tour this year. From Kelly with 42 and A.I with 19 and to the newest member, Jordy Smith. It was only 7 events ago when two surfers made the final with neither having won an event before. And it has now happened four times in the modern era. 2003-06. There have been other first time winners in that time, but they surfed their finals against surfers who had previously won events. Like watching two virgins go at it… Well not quite… In 2009, on the back beaches of Spain, Young Brazilian Adriano de Sousa won his first event on tour against Aussie elder statesman Chris Davidson who is still to win an event. Adriano made it to 3 finals in 2009 but still has just the 1 win... In 2008 in Tahiti, In one of the lowest combined heat totals in a final of all time. Two wild cards who hadn’t won an event before met in the final and Brazilian Bruno Santos defeated Tahitian Manoa Drollet. In 2006 also in Tahiti, American Rookie of the year in 06, Bobby Martinez defeated Hawaiian Freddy P to win his first Dream tour event. Bobby also won Spain in that Rookie year of 06. Bobby now has 4 event wins, Tahiti x 2 .. Spain x 2 The Current Top 45 event winners now share 115 wins between them; 17 surfers on this years Dream Tour have fulfilled the Dream of Winning a Dream Tour Event... Slater 42 .. You know as a stats guy, you pick up on different things throughout the contest, You find yourself starting to counting stupid things… I was looking at the two guys paddling out for the final, and listening to the commentary at the same time. So I began mentally added up the age of the two surfers… THE LADDER IS GETTING INTERESTING. With 3 of the first 4 event being prominent right handers and the Brazil’s beachies, it is no surprise to see that natural footers fill the first 7 positions in the top 10. But it is a surprise to then see 6 of the next 8 positions are filled by goofy footers. The top 10 currently consists of 4 Aussies, 3 Americans, 2 Brazilians and a South African leading the field, you don’t see that every day… In fact the surfing world hasn’t seen it since Shaun Thomson in 1977 topped of the world. Yes I know, what about Martin Potter in 1989 you say to yourself… There is one exception; on the ladies side of the tour, South African Wendy Botha won the tour in 1989. She then followed that up with 3 more World Championships as an Aussie. There was a bit of shuffling of position inside the top 10 but it is the same top 10 as what started in J-Bay. Jordy Smith moved from 2nd past Slater and took number 1. The cut off is after the next event in Tahiti, a left hander… There are 5 surfers who are locked together in the 33rd position and sitting just outside the cut off by 750 points. All 8 of these surfers have won 3 heats each this season, the difference is the 3 guys inside the cut-off point and locked together in 30th position, have strung 2 wins in a row together in the same event to post a 9th placing in one of the first 4 events and also a 17th to put 3 wins on the board. The other 5 just outside the cut off have also put together 3 heat wins but have put them together one at a time, they all have three 17th placings in the first 4 events. It is going to be hard to watch Tahiti, some of my favorite surfers will surf their last competitive event on the tour. Everybody still has a chance of qualifying, even the two Rookies at the bottom of the ladder who haven’t managed a heat win yet can make it if they win Teahupoo… I know that’s not likely but that’s how they have to go into this event thinking. What’s their option, to not turn up at all… There are plenty of new tour surfers in the same position with these guys above, but they all have a chance to make comebacks, the listed surfers above are all the wrong side of 30 and a comebacks might just be too much… 8 of this years 11 Rookies are all in the danger zone heading into Tahiti. But 3 have showed the world that they want to hang around for a while. Going into Tahiti, a left hander, Jadson Andrea who is a goofy footer and won his first event in Brazil a few months back, leads the field in 9th position. Aussie Owen Wright after a slow start with a couple of 17th placings has then gone 3rd and 9th to hold into his 11th position which is where he started at J-Bay. And finally Adam Melling who before J-Bay had not won a heat in his first season strung 5 heat wins in a row together which got him a 2nd placing and pushed him from 41st in the world to 19th, up 21 positions… Other big movers in South Africa were; Tiago Pirez who hadn’t won a heat at J-Bay in his first 4 starts there, put 2 wins in a row together to pick off a 9th placing and move from 20th to 15th, 5 spots… Damien Hobgood started in 23rd position, placed 5th in the event and found himself in 13th up 10 spots. Mat Wilkinson, Brett Simpson and Dusty Payne who all started outside the qualifying mark and locked in 31st position, all had 2 heat wins and 9th placings to move from 31st to 24th, up 7 spots each. The next event in Tahiti has had 3 current goofy footers and 3 current natural footers dominate there over the last 11 years; Kelly Slater has had 3 wins and 2 runner-ups.
Kelly Slater 186 .. 17TH Jay Thompson posted a season and career high score in round 2 (18.33) Which included the only perfect 10 point ride of the season so far in 2010. Bettering his 17.83 posted in Mexico in 2006… There were 15 perfect scores in 2009… A third of the field have posted their season high scores in this event… Taj Burrows 18.87 Sean Holmes is by far the best Wild Card entry of 2010… Holmes posted a 5th Placing J-Bay.. A.I x 4 .. Wild Cards in 2010 have surfed in 34 heats and won 6, Holmes has 3 of those wins… Two other wild cards have posted a 17th this is this season. Top Win Ratios in 2010 over 65% Highest Average Heat score in 2010 over 14.00 Looking forward to the next event in Tahiti where the World Tour has another metamorphosis to go through where the tour will be cut from 45 to 32 tourists. Not since the three wave scoring system was replaced with the two wave system had the tour had such a change. What's your take on this? New Survey: Map Surfing’s future More Australasian Surfing News available here Mike Newman / RAS Sports surfing stats WT Contests - Surfersvillage |
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